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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."