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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.

The Shift of Stance and Closed Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge commitments that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people allowing youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an attempt to keep open the possibility of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.